National Semi-Final Game Day Notebook

On the match-up with BC, Rutger McGroarty as the leader of a robust and crucial sophomore class, and a brief word on DU-BU on the opposite side of the bracket

At the risk of a spoiler, tonight’s game between Michigan and Boston College will be decided at the two blue lines.  

The Eagles—Hockey East regular season and tournament champions, betting favorites to win the title—enter tonight’s game scoring the second most goals-per-game in the nation and conceding the fourth fewest.  They have the second best power play in the country and the best penalty kill.  In Will Smith, Cutter Gauthier, Ryan Leonard, and Gabe Perreault, BC can claim the nation’s first, second, fifth, and sixth highest scorers.

However, as a tense 5-4 OT regional final with Quinnipiac shows, the Eagles aren’t invincible.  Of course, they beat the Bobcats, but they suffered heavily along the way, with QU forcing them to the ropes at multiple points throughout the game.  Rand Pecknold’s team took a 2-0 lead early in the second and a 4-3 lead early in the third.  The Bobcats caused BC and standout freshman goaltender Jacob Fowler major problems with point shots and traffic around the net.

Quinnipiac’s best hockey of the night came in the third period with a lead.  The Bobcats thrive on controlling game states, which is to say they are a lot more of a bear to deal with when they lead than when they have to chase a game (look no further than the difference between their 2022 Allentown regional final game with Michigan and last year’s national semifinal).

After Jacob Quillan scored to make it 4-3 just sixteen seconds into the third period, Quinnipiac caused BC major problems with their discipline in the neutral zone.  They denied the Eagles clean entries, forced turnovers, and while they didn’t create much offense of their own, they got pucks behind the BC defense and forced the Eagles to work the puck all the way up the ice with each possession.

However, BC also proved that it only takes a momentary lapse to punish even the most disciplined of opposition.  With one QU turnover at the offensive blue line, the Eagles finally had the space they needed for a clean line rush, and Aram Minnetian tied the game. 

In overtime, Quinnipiac’s season ended cruelly when Vinny Duplessis (who had been excellent, particular in the first period when BC could easily have had two or three goals if not for spectacular saves from him) mistakenly believed he’d covered a puck that was in fact loose, and Jack Malone found the winner.

What does all this mean for Michigan?  It’s a reminder of the importance of the two blue lines.

At the risk of reductionism, the Wolverines’ semi-final losses to Denver and Quinnipiac the last two seasons came down, at least principally, to turnovers in the neutral zone.  Against DU, it manifested in a surplus of offsides.  Against Quinnipiac, it prevented Michigan from playing the offensive zone game it had touted all season.

BC’s strength isn’t necessarily defending the blue line (as it certainly was for QU), but still the Wolverines need to be comfortable dumping in pucks and forechecking.  It’s arguably been the strength of Michigan’s game during its playoff surge, and the fourth line in particular (of late, Chase Pletzke, Kienan Draper, and Philippe Lapointe) has excelled at that aspect of the game.  

The forecheck has won what we might refer to in football as the “field position” battle, forcing play to the offensive zone where the Wolverines thrive.  “The forecheck keeps it in their zone and grinds them down, and especially if it’s one of their top lines, when they do get it out, they have to change, and hopefully we’re coming right back at em, so momentum, extended possession,” said Brandon Naurato last week.

Though Lapointe is a senior, Thursday will be his first time playing in the Frozen Four, but Naurato isn’t worried about that: “Phil’s a locker room guy and obviously great on the bench and great on the ice.  Just brings positive energy, and he knows what his role is, and he’s doing a good job with it.”

Among the central stories of Michigan’s successful postseason run has been the way the team’s depth has calcified into functional roles—instilling an immediate sense of defensive solidity and bringing an end to the first half’s unfortunate run of wayward third periods.  The Wolverines’ identity remains their particular brand of possession-based attack, which manifests in the offensive zone, but the forecheck has emerged as an essential means to that end, and in the regard, the team’s depth has led the way. 

“Depth is everything,” said Naurato last week.  “Everyone on our team whether you have fifty points or one point needs to check, and different guys have different skill sets where they can contribute whether it’s off the rush or off the forecheck or in our O zone.  I think depth is everything.  You need everybody.  With Seamus going down or Barzo stepping up or Frankie making a play at the right time, Duker making a play, that’s depth.  And there’s a lot of plays that didn’t end up on the scoresheet that guys did that contributes to winning hockey.”

Boston College poses a unique threat to the Wolverines, bringing a formidable degree of offensive firepower via pedigreed prospects that is so often associated with Michigan.  It won’t be an easy night for the maize and blue in the rare position of experienced underdogs, but if there is a path through the Eagles, it hinges on the Wolverines’ success at the two blue lines.

Pro Ready McGroarty and U-M’s Sophomores Lead the Way

The term “pro ready” is a vague one that often seems unable to live up to the promise it presents, but if you had to pick one of this year’s Wolverines as the most “pro ready” (i.e. the individual it would be easiest to envision playing in NHL games right now), it would have to be Rutger McGroarty.

As a sophomore, McGroarty has sixteen goals and thirty-six assists for 52 points.  Over the holidays, he captained Team USA to World Junior gold with five goals and four assists in seven games.  There are a few reasons McGroarty strikes me as especially “pro ready,” even as I find the term itself a bit slippery.

First, there is the well rounded nature of his game.  McGroarty can score; he can make plays; he is physical; he is hard on the puck; he forechecks well; he defends soundly.  He is the rare player whose combination of a dual threat pass/shoot ability with physicality and quickness allows him to be equally effective from the slot or from the perimeter of the offensive zone on the power play.  

His production is outstanding but more importantly, it is also sustainable or projectable to the NHL game.  McGroarty doesn’t score by overpowering or with an extreme dependance on winning one-on-one battles with  inferior opponents.  Instead, he excels at timing his arrival in the slot to pounce on loose pucks, sow chaos, and score.  He recognizes where he needs to go to be effective, and that knowledge and willingness will translate to the next level.

As McGroarty said of himself in October, “I feel like I’m deadly below the dots, down low in the offensive zone, and just taking the right routes, getting to the net, knowing when to get to the net,” McGroarty offered, when asked to describe his biggest asset as a player before deflecting to his teammates.  “And then obviously it helps when you play with guys like Gavin Brindley, who can find you in those spots, or Seamus Casey, just a bunch of guys who can find you in those spots.”

The one knock on McGroarty’s game has concerned his skating, but as he pointed out in the same October interview, he’s taken strides to address that by focusing on conditioning to make his technique more consistent.   “I would say a big part of it is cardio, and, like I was saying, just taking care of my body and making sure I feel 100%,” the sophomore said then.  “Because once I’m 100%, my skating isn’t really an issue.  It’s when I get tired that my stride starts to break down, and it’s not as good as it should be.  So working on that cardio, working on just the longevity of my body and then also just mechanically I continued to work with Barb Underhill this summer and just getting stronger, faster in the weight room.”

When asked about McGroarty at yesterday’s press conference, Naurato said, “Just a leader. One of those guys that brings energy every room that he walks into. Always positive, smiling, makes you smile. And obviously a great player on the ice. But just Rutger and that sophomore class, but all these guys, just a really good example of good people and what Michigan is all about.”

Entering tonight’s game, Michigan’s strength lies in its massive sophomore class.  A year ago as freshman, they were forced into massive roles the moment they arrived in college hockey.  The class might have lost some serious firepower when Adam Fantilli moved on to the NHL (and when Tyler Shea transferred!), but what remains of that class comprises the heart of Michigan’s team: Seamus Casey’s dynamism on the blue line, Frank Nazar’s unrelenting confidence with the skill to back it up, Gavin Brindley’s unrelenting energy and production, and of course McGroarty—a leader and a scorer few around the NCAA can rival.

“They’ve been unreal,” said Jacob Truscott last week of his team’s sophomores.  “They really drive our team.  There’s a lot of characters in that class, so even off the ice, they’re great guys, and they push each other every day.  They’re a huge part of our team, they make up a lot of our team, and every single one of those guys works their butt off every single day to not only make each other better but the people around them, the upper classmen.  Even me, I’ve learned a lot from them, and they’re great leaders, and they have good work ethic.  It’s no surprise that they’re getting success.  I’m just proud of them.”

McGroarty was held without a point against North Dakota and MSU in Maryland Heights.  I wouldn’t bet on that again this weekend, as he and his fellow sophomores look to improve upon their first attempt at conquering the Frozen Four beginning tonight.

BU vs. DU

On the opposite side of the bracket from Michigan and BC lurk Boston University and the University of Denver.  At first blush, both have the appearance of teams that credibly look like title contenders.  When you peruse the rosters and season’s results, it makes sense that BU and DU are here, and it’s not hard to make the case for either to advance further.

Both have recent Frozen Four experience to lean on, with BU making it to Tampa last year and Denver’s national title run of 2022.  Both have history for Michigan to avenge should the Wolverines reach the final—BU the ‘97 national semifinal and Denver in the same game two years ago.

For the Terriers, there is strength in a blend of veteran experience and youthful skill, the latter embodied most acutely by Macklin Celebrini (thirty-two goals, thirty-two assists in thirty-seven games, Hobey Baker favorite, and prospective number one overall pick at June’s NHL Draft), while seniors like Luke Tuch and Dylan Peterson possess plenty of big game know-how.  Lane Hutson, a sophomore, walks between those worlds (youthful talent and experience) as a central figure on last year’s Frozen Four team, BU’s second leading scorer (forty-nine points in thirty-seven games), and a prospect that has Montreal Canadiens fans salivating.

Junior goaltender Mathieu Caron (a Brown transfer) has strong numbers this season with a 2.37 goals against average and .915 save percentage in thirty-nine games.  However, he’s also shown vulnerability in two games with trophies at stake this season: conceding four goals on seventeen shots in the Beanpot final against Northeastern and five goals on twenty-eight shots in the Hockey East tournament final.

On the Pioneers side of the ledger, David Carle has built (or perhaps refined) what has to be described as the gold standard for men’s hockey programs at the moment.  He’s won NCHC regular season and tournament crowns, a national title, and a World Junior—all at the ripe age of thirty-four.

A major variable entering the weekend is the health of junior forward Massimo Rizzo.  Rizzo has scored ten goals and thirty-four assists in twenty-eight games, but he’s been out since early February with an injury, before which he was the clear frontrunner for the Hobey.  Rizzo has practiced this week, but there has yet to be a definitive word on his status for Thursday night.

Freshman defenseman Zeev Buium—another prospective top pick at June’s draft—has been outstanding, with ten goals and thirty-four assists in forty games, while his older brother Shai (like Rizzo, a veteran of the ‘22 title winners) helps round out what is arguably as deep a skater group as any in the country.

In net, junior Matt Davis has strong numbers (2.48 GAA, .911 SV%, a 21-5-3 record), but those stats are probably a better reflection of the team in front of him than his own game.  Davis has played admirably this year (especially in the postseason), but goaltending is without doubt Denver’s weak point, the biggest reason the Pios didn’t go into this tournament as the number one overall seed.

I lean Terriers here, in large part because their blend of veterans and youth feels to me most like a winning formula, but, as long as Davis stands his ground, the Pioneers won’t bow out easily.

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