Midweek Roundup 2.1.23
We consider Michigan’s mentality and its injuries, pre-scout the Badgers, deep dive the power play, and close with a review of another busy week of WoHo
Between its split on the road against top-ranked Minnesota and last weekend’s sweep over Penn State, the University of Michigan men’s hockey team has vaulted into fourth in the Pairwise. Put differently, if the NCAA Tournament began today, Brandon Naurato’s team would have a one-seed.
As impressive as the results have been, these last two weekends have perhaps been more encouraging for what they’ve shown about the Wolverines’ mentality than for any outcome.
In Minneapolis, Michigan proved it could play with and then beat any team in the country. Against Penn State, Michigan showed maturity in reflecting on a winning Friday night effort it deemed inadequate, then demonstrated remarkable resilience in a come-from-behind Saturday win to seal the team’s first B1G sweep of the year.
“We got some good hockey players on this team,” said freshman forward Rutger McGroarty after the Friday victory when asked how Michigan’s youth impacts its performance. “You can say we’re young, but we’re mature kids, and we have great leaders. Our captains were taking us under their wing at the beginning of the year, and now, we’re just all on the same team. I wouldn’t say the youth affects us. Maybe earlier in the year, it could have affected us, but now we’ve got five or six weekends left, you can’t use that excuse anymore.”
This coming weekend, Michigan’s resolve will be further tested by a glut of injuries. Junior defenseman Jacob Truscott and sophomore forward Mackie Samoskevich missed the PSU series, while freshman defenseman Seamus Casey was unable to finish Saturday’s game with an apparent lower body injury. Fellow-freshman Adam Fantilli did complete Saturday’s game, but he did so in evident pain. That Truscott finished the Minnesota series before missing the one against Penn State provides a cautionary tale against assuming Fantilli will be available just because he played in the immediate aftermath of his injury.
After that Saturday victory, Naurato said “[athletic trainer] Brian Brewster [who celebrated a birthday Tuesday] does a great job, and he’s not gonna put those guys on the ice and put them in a bad spot if they’re not ready to play. After he evaluated them, he just knew that Adam could keep going and Sea obviously couldn’t.”
Michigan did not hold open practices this week, so we do not have an injury update for you. However, one encouraging bit of injury news did come from Naurato’s weekly radio show at the Pretzel Bell, per friend of the newsletter Jon Morosi:
Frank Nazar’s return could be an enormous boon to a team short on natural centers. The 2022 first round selection of Chicago’s, who has yet to make his collegiate debut, profiles as a dynamic attacker in transition, who can more carry more than his own weight in the defensive zone.
After last Friday victory’s over the Nittany Lions, Fantilli did express confidence in his team’s ability to adapt to the adversity, when asked about spending the weekend on a line with McGroarty and Gavin Brindley for the first time.
“We’ve got a lot of great forwards up and down our lineup and a lot of guys that can play in the top six,” Fantilli said. “Playing with Rutger and Gavin is obviously amazing—two highly skilled players that know how to make plays.”
If any or all of Truscott, Samoskevich, Casey, and Fantilli miss the Wisconsin series, Naurato and his staff will have to lean on the likes of McGroarty and Brindley to get past the Badgers. Still, the specter of Nazar’s return provides cause for optimism.
Scouting the Badgers
With a record of 10-16-0 (3-13-0), Wisconsin will arrive in Ann Arbor at the Big Ten’s cellar. Tony Granato’s Badgers are ranked thirty-fourth in the Pairwise, sixteen spots behind the next lowest team in the conference (Michigan State at eighteen).
Wisconsin had a 2-4 record in the Big Ten over the month of January, with a 6-1 defeat at the hands of the NTDP to boot. The Badgers have lost three straight, most recently a sweep at the hands of Notre Dame in South Bend last weekend.
The Badgers leading scorer is freshman forward Cruz Lucious, whose nine goals and seventeen assists in twenty-six games have him at a neat 1.0 points-per-game.
In net, senior Jared Moe remains Granato’s preferred option, and it’s not hard to see why. Moe has commendable numbers (2.70 GAA, .913 SV%) despite a harsh win-loss record (9-12). Sophomore backup Kyle McClellan has struggled in his six appearances (3.93, .843).
The reason for Moe’s poor record despite solid-to-strong numbers has been a profound struggle for goal scoring beyond Lucious. Averaging 2.5 goals-per-game, the Badgers are tied for twelfth worst in the nation in scoring.
All of this is to say it will be vital for Michigan to maintain its building momentum by taking all six points at Yost this weekend.
Of course, when the Wolverines traveled to Madison in early December, things didn’t go so smoothly. An all-too-familiar flat Friday performance turned into a 6-3 defeat. The next night, Mark Estapa, Michigan’s mala leche, guided the Wolverines to a 4-2 win. Even in that Saturday victory, Michigan never delivered its collective best.
So, with injuries mounting and that December trip as an admonition, it will be imperative for Michigan to find a way—whether it comes through the imperious game the Wolverines showed in Minneapolis two weeks ago or the grind-it-out effort from that Madison Saturday night—to come up with six points against the Badgers.
Power Play Film Review
After last weekend, the Michigan power play—a phase of play that interim head coach Brandon Naurato holds dear—sits at twelfth in the nation and second in the Big Ten, converting at 24.0%.
That figure is impressive, but I feel confident in saying Naurato would want to see it climb. A season-long success rate of 24% also belies the unit’s trajectory over the course of the year.
In October, the Wolverine power play scored on fourteen of its forty-six chances (30.4%). Perhaps some regression was inevitable, but this January, Michigan has scored on four of its eighteen power plays (22.2%).
It may be worth noting that this slip in conversion rate corresponds to a drop in opportunities. During that October run of success (the high water mark of which was a five-for-five night against Western Michigan at Lawson on Halloween), Michigan averaged 5.75 power plays-per game. In January, the Wolverines earned just 3.0 power plays per game. It would follow that more chances to operate afford a five-on-four unit a greater rhythm.
Per Naurato, more time up a man also provides a knock-on advantage in five-on-five play, with opponents drained from time spent killing. In reference to the Saturday night OT win in Minneapolis (in which the Wolverines had four power plays, though didn’t score), Naurato pointed out, “It’s interesting when other teams are in the box how it messes with their lines, and it takes a lot of physical and emotional energy out of them during the game, so now your even-strength gets more of a push.”
To add some context to those numbers, let’s take a look at all five Michigan power plays from last weekend to take stock of the unit.
Before diving into the video, a brief word on personnel. The first unit last weekend was Adam Fantilli, Gavin Brindley, Rutger McGroarty, Luke Hughes, and T.J. Hughes. The second was Dylan Duke, Jackson Hallum, Eric Ciccolini, Seamus Casey, and Ethan Edwards.
#1 (0:00-1:25 of the video above)
After a clean faceoff win, Penn State sends the puck the length of the ice, forcing Michigan to regroup. Michigan employs a slingshot maneuver to gain the zone. From just beyond the red line, T.J. Hughes sends a backward pass to Brindley, who receives the puck at his own blue line.
Brindley—with Fantilli alongside him—has looped deep into the defensive zone such that when he receives Hughes’ pass both he and Fantilli have built up a head of steam. Because Hughes sent the initial pass from the Nittany Lion half of the rink, all four penalty killers are on the defensive side of the red line.
With Fantilli as a potential passing outlet and speed built up, Brindley can gain the offensive zone with ease, the pair’s speed having forced back the penalty kill and provided easy access to the offensive blue line. Upon doing so, Brindley drops the puck for McGroarty, who plays an outstanding rink-wide pass to Fantilli. McGroarty’s pass leaves Fantilli, T.J. Hughes, and Brindley with a three-on-one numerical advantage in front of Liam Souliere. Fantilli’s subsequent pass for a wide-open Brindley at the back door is deflected to the boards, so Michigan doesn’t get a shot out of the opportunity, but the preceding passing sequence opened up a quality look.
Gavin Brindley wins the ensuing scramble for the puck and uses the boards for a rim release to the point. Luke Hughes cannot get on the end of Brindley’s effort in time to keep the zone, instead collecting the puck and resetting to the red line. Quick power play resets have been a staple of Michigan’s under Naurato. Just as an opponent believes it has relieved pressure, the Wolverines will dart back in for a chance.
Here, as Hughes regains the zone, Brindley, McGroarty, and T.J. Hughes head straight for the net. This movement, understandably, commands the attention of the entire PSU PK, allowing a late-arriving Fantilli to slip in undetected and setting up a quality chance from the low slot. Thanks to the pre-shot movement, with the puck and without it, Fantilli end up in a spot from which he won’t miss very often
The whole sequence has been an extreme version of the notion of playing for possession we discussed last week. Brindley, short of options, uses the rim release to keep control rather than forcing a play to the goal mouth that isn’t open. Hughes could try for some kind of desperation keep-in but instead opts again for control. That re-group is the precursor to a convergence at the net (from Brindley, McGroarty, and T.J. Hughes), which creates the room for Fantilli’s goal.
#2 (1:26-4:00)
A clean faceoff win from Fantilli to begin Friday night’s second and final power play offers a picture of the top Wolverine unit’s in-zone alignment. Luke Hughes and Gavin Brindley operate in tandem in high ice, while T.J. Hughes plays on the left flank, McGroarty at the net front, and Fantilli along the right flank.
Crisp passing around the perimeter leads to a decent look for the freshman Hughes, but the royal road pass he receives from Fantilli is not quite in the right spot for a one-timer.
The Wolverines’ passing keeps them in the zone for about a full minute to begin the power play and culminates in a Luke Hughes point-shot, during which the sophomore defenseman’s stick breaks, allowing the Nittany Lions to clear. It’s difficult to complain about any shot attempt from #43, given his performance a night later, but the shot (from distance, albeit with a presence at the net front) is not exactly a “Grade A” look, whether his stick broke or not, nor does it maximize the advantage gained by the passing that preceded it.
As Michigan resets, Brindley and Luke Hughes go off for Ethan Edwards and Seamus Casey (roughly 1:05 into the power play). After a failed entry, Ciccolini, Duke, and Hallum come on to complete the change.
The second unit attempts a similar slingshot to the one that kick-started the first Michigan power play, but Casey doesn’t receive the puck with the same momentum Brindley had. As a result, Penn State’s penalty kill can more easily defend the blue line, rebuff the entry attempt, and clear again.
After another reset, the unit does create the best chance of the power play, with Ethan Edwards sending a rink-wide pass to Casey, who toe drags around a defender and creates a slot chance for himself as the power play expires.
#3 (4:00-6:45)
The Wolverines’ first power play of Saturday’s game is their worst of the weekend. With the opportunity to begin to claw back into the game, Michigan does little to break down the Nittany Lion kill. The zone time isn’t terrible, but the Wolverines never make serious inroads into the scoring square.
Perhaps of note is the fact that the second unit doesn’t take the ice until 1:13 into the power play. Naurato has previously advocated for the value of short shifts, even on the power play, citing assistant coach Rob Rassey’s axiom that “nothing good happens after forty seconds.” Through the season, standard operating procedure has been for Naurato to take off the first unit after, at most, fifty seconds.
In some ways, the extended shift is situational—based on control of the puck in the offensive zone. Perhaps also, injuries—most notably that to Mackie Samoskevich—made the Wolverines a bit more dependent on their top unit.
Whatever the cause, the end result is a fruitless first power play chance of the night.
#4 (6:45-9:15)
Michigan’s second look Saturday night proves its most controversial, with a Fantilli goal wiped off the board via video review due to a Ethan Edwards penalty (~8:29 in the video) roughly thirty seconds before Fantilli’s goal.
After the puck goes out of play thirty-six seconds into the minor, Naurato sends on the second unit. It is the quickest that group gets a look all weekend.
On the sequence that produces the goal, Michigan is in the midst of another change, with Fantilli, Luke Hughes, and Brindley representing the first unit and Hallum and Duke representing the second.
The play provides another example of the value of Michigan’s possession-game in high ice. After a Luke Hughes zone entry (in which the sophomore takes it himself, even with Brindley in place for another slingshot), Hallum, Hughes, and Brindley are in the outer recesses of the offensive zone, while Duke and Fantilli are operating lower down. When Hughes plays a pass back down low for Fantilli, three of the four penalty killers have drifted above the dots.
In other words, possession play in high ice has done its job, luring out the opposition. This leaves Fantilli and Duke with just one man to contend with between them and Souliere. Duke gains inside leverage on Nittany Lion defenseman Christian Berger at the net front. The obvious play for Fantilli is a pass in for Duke, but the freshman—sensing that Souliere sees this as well—catches Souliere leaning to defend a pass and instead slips the puck through the netminder’s five-hole
It’s possible that Fantilli intended the play as a centering pass and just got a fortunate bounce, but his deliberate set up and expressive reaction suggest otherwise. The power play will officially go down as unsuccessful, even if the Wolverines scored, but had that goal washed out by a play that had nothing to do with the scoring sequence.
#5 (9:15-10:41)
The Wolverines’ final power play of the evening begins with another sequence of sharp in-zone passing. At first, the Wolverines set up in the same formation we described in reference to PP #2 above. However, Brindley and Fantilli exchange places eighteen seconds into the shift, with the former slipping into the bumper spot in the slot and the latter joining Hughes in high ice.
McGroarty recovers the rebound from a Fantilli chance and takes a moment to collect himself below the goal line, before feeding Fantilli again. At this moment, both Hughes and Fantilli have collapsed to the tops of the circles. In some ways, this gives the play a feel closer to a 5-on-3 than a 5-on-4.
It may seem counterintuitive for Michigan to collapse the space with a numerical advantage, but the move spirals PSU into desperation. From McGroarty’s feed for Fantilli on, the Nittany Lions are chasing the puck and a step behind.
Eventually, Luke and T.J. Hughes exchange passes, before the former beats Souliere with a tide-turning one-timer. The play is made possible because of the sophomore’s subtle shift wide after his initial pass to the freshman.
Luke sends that pass to T.J. from the inner slot, not even as wide as the circle to Souliere’s left. When T.J. sends the return feed, Luke is roughly to the width of the dot, having gained depth as well. With this drift, the elder Hughes (showing confidence in his shot, for good reason) ensures that Souliere will have even farther to stretch on the ensuing one-timer, which he is unable to do. The younger Hughes shows impressive patience and awareness of space in pausing before returning the puck, allowing the play to develop fully.
With the play, the two Hughes transformed a comeback from a distant possibility to an impending inevitability.
So what to make of the weekend’s efforts on the man advantage?
With the caveat that Penn State’s penalty kill has not exactly been its strong suit, Michigan showed clear signs that its power play is heating back up. The results (three goals, two of which were allowed to stand) along with the process to earn them (player and puck-movement throughout the offensive zone) suggest a unit rounding into form at the right time.
Another caveat here is that injuries threaten to disrupt this momentum. If Fantilli, Samoskevich, Truscott, and Casey are again unavailable against Wisconsin, Michigan will need to adapt to the absence of four vital power play contributors.
It managed to do so without two of that number against Penn State, but losing all four would of course compound the challenge. One solution could be sliding McGroarty over to the Fantilli role, elevating Duke back to the top unit, and bringing Mark Estapa and Philippe Lapointe onto the second unit.
From a longer term perspective, when discussing the stylistic differences between playoff and regular season hockey, we tend to emphasize ruggedness, physicality, and less stringent officiating. However, power play success often proves vital toward swinging games in high-stakes situations, especially when opportunities with the extra man come seldom. As Rand Pecknold said at Team USA’s pre-World Junior camp, “any time you’re in a short tournament, special teams and goaltending is usually what wins.”
As the Wolverines fix their focus on the Big Ten and NCAA Tournaments, they will want to arrive with their power play as sharp as possible. Last weekend’s performance suggests the team is on its way to achieving that goal.
WoHo Wednesday
The University of Michigan women’s hockey team fell last Sunday to second-ranked Adrian College by a score of 1-0, snapping an unbeaten run that stretched back to November.
Though the result was disappointing, Jenna Trubiano’s team did host a distinguished guest over the weekend, University president Santa Ono.
Hopefully, Ono’s visit portends greater support from the University to Trubiano’s program moving forward.
Prior to the match-up with Adrian, the team had helped out with the men’s series against Penn State—taking on TV timeout shoveling duties for both games. In a moment of unsubtle symbolism, Trubiano’s team of tuition-paying students exerted themselves for their school, without even the faintest recognition.
In a rare miss from Michigan’s events team, the Wolverines were never acknowledged. Not for their labor in shoveling, not for their top-ten status in the ACHA, not for the fact that they would host the ACHA’s second-ranked team the following evening at Yost. It was difficult not to take the episode as one more incident of a school failing to do the bare minimum to support its only women’s hockey team.
Also over the weekend, a question about the potential for the program to make the leap to D1 prompted the following response from regent Jordan Acker:
Without wishing to be too harsh on someone who does seem to be pushing the University toward the obviously correct conclusion (albeit at a snail’s pace), there are a few aspects of Acker’s statement I find interesting.
The idea that the problem of D1 women’s hockey is logistical rather than financial is interesting and an apparent departure from previous assessments of the situation, which have tended to cite dollars and cents as the reason the team has not made the jump. On some level, this is encouraging, since presumably logistical challenges are more easily overcome.
What’s frustrating though is that Acker immediately lists several reasons (which scan more as excuses) that the University does not currently offer varsity women’s hockey, before noting that he would “love to see a feasibility study soon.”
First of all, it’s not clear to me why these excuses are relevant or even grounded in fact if a “feasibility study” hasn’t even been conducted. More troublingly, why on earth would such a study not have been orchestrated already, especially when you consider Acker’s self-declared interest in the project?
I don’t think anyone who supports the idea of Michigan adding varsity women’s hockey believes that there will be zero logistical hurdles to clear in doing so. It’s frustrating to see school leaders act as though people are naive to the challenges of adding a varsity sport, especially an infrastructure-intensive one like hockey. That can all be true, but none of it is an argument not to embark on the project of adding a varsity program.
Short and long-term solutions to the problems Acker outlines (essentially the availability of facilities) would be necessary, but once again, it’s difficult to escape the conclusion that if the school simply decided it wanted to, those issues would be more than surmountable. That the University does not even have a relevant “feasibility study” prepared is disappointing, to say the least.
From an on-ice perspective, the defeat to Adrian leaves the Wolverines with four games left in the regular season: a home and home with Grand Valley State this weekend, a home date with Concordia University on February 12th, and then a home game with Michigan State. This Sunday’s matinee against GVSU will serve as senior night.
Scheduling Note
Before closing, a brief note on our publication schedule for the weekend: We at Gulo Gulo Hockey will be traveling over the back half of the week and thus will not be able to cover the Wisconsin series from the press box. As such, do not expect to see us on Twitter over the weekend, and the traditional Sunday Close Reading will be bumped back to Monday, with a slightly different format. If all goes according to plan, we will have an extra article for you next week after the trip to atone for our prodigal ways this weekend.
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