‘22-23 Roster Preview, Pt. 2: The Blue Line
‘22-23 Roster Preview, Pt. 2: The Blue Line
Roster preview season continues with a review of Michigan’s defense corps, exploring Luke Hughes’ potential, the balance of veteran and freshman talent, and replacing Power and Blankenburg
Another week has passed, football blew somebody else out in the Big House, and we are one week closer to hockey returning to Yost. With a week and a half until the exhibition opener against Windsor, our tripartite run-through of Michigan’s roster marches on. Today’s focus: the blue line. We’ll use the same format as last week’s preview of the forward group, with a gloss followed by three questions on our mind as the season inches nearer.
A Gloss on the Group
Stop me if you’ve heard this before, but the ‘22-23 Wolverines have some serious talent to replace. On the blue line, the two biggest departures are the number one pick from the 2020 NHL Draft and the captain from a year ago. Other than that, there’s not too much work to be done.
Before we go much further, we should take a moment to acknowledge our own pedantry. You’ll note the title of this third of our roster preview is not “defensemen” but rather “the Blue Line.” This is a manifestation of one of our favorite crosses to bear: that the positional title “defenseman” is misleading and antiquated, inviting an approach to the role that runs in stark contradiction to playing the position well in the modern era. To keep this brief, “defenseman” implies a player’s primary role is, well, playing defense in the defensive zone, which is to say blocking shots and administering hits (in other words, actions that reflect a dearth of puck possession). Meanwhile, a soccer-style “fullback” or basketball-inspired “guard” is a better description of an effective modern blue liner—whose primary responsibilities include moving the puck. We will use the d-word on occasion, but, especially for a team that wants to play at the tempo Michigan does, we do so despite its status as misnomer.
That pet diatribe out of the way, there is plenty to be excited about the Wolverines’ blue line in the coming year. Six returners (Luke Hughes, Jacob Truscott, Ethan Edwards, Keaton Pehrson, Jay Keranen and Steve Holtz) along with four freshmen (Seamus Casey, Luca Fantilli, Brendan Miles, and Johnny Druskinis) comprise the unit.
In Hughes, the Wolverines may well return the best player in the nation. As a freshman, Hughes just missed out on being a point-a-game player (thirty-nine in forty-one games played) and set a school record for freshman defensemen with seventeen goals.
Perhaps the biggest wildcard along the back end for the Maize and Blue is Steve Holtz. Now a junior, Holtz did not see game action as a freshman and was limited to eleven games as a sophomore due to a combination of injury and competition for a spot in the lineup. With Owen Power and Nick Blankenburg out of the picture, there is ample room for him to establish himself as a regular after an up-and-down sophomore campaign. For Holtz, a high came in a two-assist night against Minnesota, while a nadir came when he was kicked out of a home loss to Notre Dame—albeit on a dubious major penalty.
Meanwhile, there is a fair bit of uncertainty attached to Keranen’s name as well. As we discussed a week ago, Keranen split time between forward and defense across his fifteen appearances as a junior, though he did serve primarily on the blue line. With four points spread throughout his twenty-nine career appearances for Michigan, Keranen is unlikely to emerge as an offensive force for the Wolverines in his senior year, but whether and where he can lock down a spot on Brandon Naurato’s lineup card is worth monitoring.
We will delve into the freshmen class in more detail in a moment, but, for now, it’s worth naming that this year’s crop of freshmen defenders does not carry with it the hype of the preceding two classes. Simply put, there is no Owen Power or Luke Hughes in this class, and, when you frame it like that, it makes sense. Nonetheless, Seamus Casey and company—like their freshman forward counterparts—arrive to a roster that would benefit from meaningful first-year contributions.
Three Questions
Will Luke Hughes become the third Wolverine to win the Hobey Baker?
Yes, this is where we are anchoring the Luke Hughes conversation. Will he win the award for the country’s top player?
The youngest Hughes brother gave us ample evidence of his ridiculous talent during his first season in Ann Arbor, but we’ve chosen two highlights from the Frozen Four defeat to Denver—neither of which turned into a goal.
Both plays are, by conventional wisdom, ill advised. In both cases, Hughes gambles on making a move where failure would concede an immediate quality scoring opportunity. Likewise, in both cases, Hughes eases past a defender and goes about his business.
That was Hughes’ first year for the Wolverines in miniature: performances so good they appeared effortless, even against the season’s fiercest competition. Making things a bit sweeter was that Hughes had a penchant for doing so against Wolverine rivals.
Of course, it didn’t happen on every shift, but Hughes made clear that his combination of hand and foot speed could seize control of any game at any point. If only for momentary bursts, Hughes can turn a Division 1 hockey game—be it in the Frozen Four or the Big Ten regular season—into a recess court, on which one kid is just faster and more skilled than everybody else.
After a dizzying freshman year—whether in terms of productivity on the stat sheet or via the eye test, there is no ceiling in sight for Hughes’ ‘22-23 season.
Hughes and Matty Beniers both finished as top ten finalists for the ‘22 edition of the Hobey Baker, but neither managed to crack the top three. That a team as talented as the ‘21-22 Wolverines failed to land anyone especially close to the top of the Hobey heap reflects an advantage for Hughes this go-round: unlike a year ago, there is no doubt who Michigan’s best player is. It’s possible Adam Fantilli could unsettle that assertion with an outstanding freshman season, but, as we enter the year fresh, that crown is Hughes’ alone.
No Wolverine has won the award since Kevin Porter in 2008, though Kyle Connor deserved to in 2016. Even if his focus will be on winning a different trophy that hasn’t made its way back to Ann Arbor in too long, Hughes—the best player on one of the nation’s best teams, a player with familial NHL pedigree who projects to the next level with grandeur—has more than a decent chance to capture this year’s Hobey Baker.
How can Michigan replace the style and stability that walks out the door with Power and Blankenburg?
As we noted from the top, it’s impossible to discuss this year’s Michigan blue line without touching on what isn’t returning from a year ago: Nick Blankenburg and Owen Power.
Before launching into what’s coming back this season, let’s take a moment to acknowledge what walked out the door with those two. Along with Hughes, the two were the Wolverines best defensemen a year ago.
Normally, when you talk about veteran (liberally defined in Power’s case we admit) defensemen departing, the concern would be stability. Without wishing to suggest Power and Blankenburg were unreliable (which would be inaccurate), stability is not exactly the first word we’d associate with either. Instead, Power and Blankenburg established a freewheeling tone for the Wolverines’ defense, and you were as liable to spot them below the opponent’s goal-line as clearing out attackers from their own crease.
If we’ve said it once, we’ve said it a hundred times: for as much as talent as there was up front, the identity of the ‘21-22 Wolverines hinged on the speed and aptitude with which their defense corps moved the puck and its willingness to engage offensively. All of that is to say Michigan has some heavy lifting to do in replacing the players who walked out the door.
The good news is that, as discussed above, Luke Hughes is more than ready to inherit the mantle of “guiding light of dynamic d-corps.” One key understudy for Hughes in that regard will be sophomore Ethan Edwards.
Like Hughes, Edwards is a New Jersey Devils draft pick with a penchant for puck moving on the back end. The below clip from a victory in the Twin Cities a year ago highlights Edwards’ proficiency as a passer. On a night when the Wolverines had appeared lethargic, Edwards brought the team to life with this well-picked cross-rink pass on the wide ice at 3M Arena at Mariucci.
Edwards finished his freshman year with three goals and eight assists across thirty-six games. As we discussed a week ago in relation to Mackie Samoskevich, Edwards should be able to outpace those figures with the boost in power play minutes he can expect as a sophomore. With that said, there is a difference between showing promise as a freshman in a sheltered role and establishing yourself as a top-pair quality defender on a national title contender. For Michigan to reach its aspirations, Edwards needs to navigate that transition.
Of course, we would be misleading you if we suggested that Power and Blankenburg’s only added value came in attack. Power in particular—thanks to his ridiculous reach—had a knack for erasing any offense opponents dared to muster against him.
For a steadying defensive presence this year, Brandon Naurato will lean on Keaton Pehrson and Jacob Truscott. The former returns after a junior year in which he regularly rode shotgun with Power; in that capacity, Pehrson played a traditional “stay-at-home” role while affording Power the freedom to best exploit his offensive talents.
The latter provided a similar presence—often alongside Blankenburg. Truscott won’t put up many points this year, but he is a strong skater with excellent defensive instincts, whose game seemed to improve as the season progressed. The Port Huron native missed out on last year’s World Juniors as regularly scheduled, one of the last cuts from Team USA’s ill-fated New Years trip to western Canada, but, when the event was rescheduled for August, Truscott’s name was on the list.
Naurato will also have to determine whether he prefers to balance the dynamism we anticipate out of Hughes and Edwards with the more stable Truscott and Pehrson or stack one all-attacking pair ahead of one defense-first one.
How does Brandon Naurato integrate the freshmen?
On the subject of deployment and balance, Naurato will also have to determine how to integrate his four incoming freshmen into this defensive group. Hughes, Edwards, Truscott, and Pehrson are the teams established top four defensemen, but will Naurato want to make that group his top four, leaving an unproven bottom pair beneath it?
Regardless of how he chooses to divvy up minutes, Naurato will have some appealing first-year options to choose from, even if there isn’t a standout at the level of Hughes or Power in the class.
Seamus Casey, another Devils’ draft choice, will arrive in Ann Arbor, boasting many of the attributes that defined Michigan’s blue line a year ago. In their 2022 Draft Guide, Elite Prospects described Casey as not just one of the best puck handling defenders in the class, but one of its best puck handlers full stop. Simply put, he projects as the kind of puck-mover who has thrived in Ann Arbor for years.
Meanwhile, Brendan Miles appears tailor-made for the fast-paced, freewheeling Wolverine style. In a 2020 feature for Hometown Life, Collin Gay described the incoming freshman—then playing for Novi’s Catholic Central Shamrocks—as a supreme talent on a team that eschewed old school “dump and chase” for a more skilled and modern approach. In other words, Miles has been trained since at least high school to play the kind of high-octane game he will be asked to utilize in Ann Arbor.
Johnny Druskinis is another player who should arrive with a solid understanding of the style he arrives into in Ann Arbor, albeit for different reasons. That is because Druskinis won a pair of state titles at Hartland High School, wearing Maize, Blue, and a winged helmet to do so.
Another intriguing name for Naurato is Luca Fantilli, elder brother of Adam. Fantilli arrives by way of the Chicago Steele and figures to vie for minutes straight away, even if he isn’t the kind of blue chip prospect his brother is. Thanks to the Steele, we can also say with certainty that, if you need auto repair advice, Luca is your man.
Odds & Ends:
Michigan lands sixth in first USCHO poll of the season
On Monday, USCHO released its preseason poll, topped by the defending champion Denver Pioneers. Michigan clocked in at number six, though it did garner two of the fifty first-place votes. Elsewhere in the Big Ten, Minnesota sits right behind the Pios at number two, while Notre Dame checks in ninth and Ohio State sixteenth. Non-conference Wolverine opponents Harvard (eleventh), Boston University (twelfth), and Western Michigan (fourteenth) also featured in the poll.
At the risk of putting too much stock into a preseason poll (which is to say any stock at all), this ranking reflects the uncertainty around the program. Breaking in a new head coach (one who formally took the reins far later in the cycle than would be standard) and replacing unprecedented NHL talent, there are obvious reasons to wonder whether the Wolverines can match the standard set by the ‘21-22 bunch.
That isn’t an insult to Naurato, nor to the talented freshmen who will debut this October but rather an acknowledgement of the profound changes the program has undergone since the season ended last April. With so many key figures from last year’s Frozen Four team gone, it should come as no surprise that this year’s preseason ranking is several spots beneath last year’s third ranking.
That the Wolverines remain in the top ten reflects the respect the voters have for the talent in Ann Arbor and their apparent faith that Naurato will provide a steady hand on the tiller.
Incidentally, last year’s preseason poll follows a similar structure with the defending national champions (then UMass) atop the heap. Meanwhile, three of the eventual Frozen Four fell one after the other from third to fifth. The lone Frozen Four side outside the preseason top five? That’s right, eventual champions and preseason number thirteen Denver.
What are we saying here? It’s obvious, frankly. Start the season as talented with question marks, ranked outside the top five, finish the season national champions. History is clear on this.