‘22-23 Roster Preview, Pt. I: the Forwards
‘22-23 Roster Preview, Pt. I: the Forwards
Our season preview intensifies with three questions asked and (sort of) answered about Michigan’s forward group
As September creeps toward and soon across its midpoint, we figured we were past due to launch into a formal preview of the season. After all, not this Saturday, not next Saturday, but the Saturday after that, our beloved Wolverines will take the ice in their exhibition get-together with Windsor. One more Saturday after that, and the regular year will be underway at Yost.
Speaking of satisfying Saturdays, the Saturday past was a good one for Michigan hockey enthusiasts. We could go back and forth all day about whether the Big Ten Tournament or its regular season crown carries more weight. What’s undeniable is that the tournament’s trophy looks much better, and, after a lightning delay, it was on glorious display during the football team’s romp through Hawaii.
The trophy was surrounded by the ‘22-23 team along with some distinguished alumni of the team that captured it a year ago with Olympians Brendan Brisson and Matty Beniers, along with captain Nick Blankenburg and rockstar Thomas Bordeleau. If nothing else, it was another nice reminder that, despite a numbing end to the season, the ‘21-22 Wolverines didn’t leave Ann Arbor empty-handed.
Today, we begin a three part preview of Michigan’s roster. Today it will be the forwards, next week we’ll talk through the blue line, and the following week we’ll address goaltending and special teams. We’ll offer a brief breakdown of the assembled talent in each group, pose three questions for that unit for ‘22-23, then do our best to contextualize them.
A Gloss on the Forward Group
Let’s start with the obviou part. Up front and on the back end, the 2022-23 Michigan Wolverines must replace a silly number of NHL players. Matty Beniers, Thomas Bordeleau, Brendan Brisson and Kent Johnson—the teams top four forwards a year ago and four of the its five leading scorers—are off to the NHL, which is to say there are lots of vacancies for a talented class of freshmen to fill. Johnson’s creativity and vision, along with Brisson’s scoring touch, would be hard enough to replace, but the Wolverines must also break in two new centers atop the lineup with Bordeleau and Beniers out the door.
Another formidable recruiting class is set to replace some of that lost production, headlined by Adam Fantilli (a prospective top pick in the 2023 NHL Draft) and the USNTDP’s Frank Nazar and Rutger McGroarty.
One wildcard for the Wolverines up front will be Eric Ciccolini. The senior, a seventh round selection of the New York Rangers in the 2019 Draft, returns from a junior campaign that never got off the ground. The Vaughn, Ontario native played in just four games a year ago in which he accrued two shots, eight penalty minutes, and no points before a lower body injury took him out of action. Ciccolini missed extended time as an underclassman as well. If injury luck finally goes his way, Ciccolini could compete for a featured role in the top six of an inexperienced roster, but the repeated setbacks in his past make plain that there is no assurance on that front.
It is worth noting that the Wolverines carry fourteen forwards into the season, a figure that excludes part-time forward Jay Keranen. A year ago sixteen full-time forwards (plus Jay Keranen) saw action a year ago, so it is fair to wonder whether depth might be something of a concern here. Dressing thirteen forwards is common practice throughout college hockey, so even one injury would be enough to empty the Wolverines’ forward reserves. With that in mind, Michigan could explore converting Keranen from “defenseman who sometimes plays forward” to a primary, if not full-time, forward.
Three Questions
Can a new crop of blue chip freshmen carry the freight for Michigan offensively?
Beniers, Bordeleau, Brisson, and Johnson arrived in Ann Arbor in the turbulent fall of 2020. The quartet swept the top four of Michigan’s points race as freshmen. In so doing they wasted no time taking the offensive reins, even on a team with a well-established veteran presence.
With those four out of the picture, this year’s freshmen can expect an opportunity or perhaps even responsibility. If all goes according to preseason expectation, that burden will wind up on the shoulders of Fantilli, Nazar, and McGroarty. Fantilli’s 1.39 points per game in the USHL last year was the fourth highest figure for a draft-minus-one-year player in the last ten years, trailing just Jack Hughes, Auston Matthews, and Jack Eichel. The high-scoring power forward figures to hear at most two names before his own at next summer’s draft. Nazar is an electric skater and a menace in transition, scoring 70 points in 56 games for the NTDP a year ago. McGroarty posted 69 points in 54 NTDP games and arrives with similar expectations for immediate contribution. If his choice to wear number two as a forward is any indicator, McGroarty is ready for the spotlight.
A year ago, Michigan broke in another elite freshman class but with the record-setting sophomores blazing the trail, there was never any doubt as to who put in the vital shift in the offensive engine room. This year’s freshmen don’t walk into a roster devoid of talent, far from it, but they will have to carry a heavier share of the burden than their immediate predecessors.
Beyond the three headliners, other freshmen vying for a regular role include Gavin Brinkley, T.J. Hughes, and Jackson Hallum, the latter of whom has earned acclaim from the Michigan Daily’s Connor Earegood based on the season’s first practices.
The talent walking out the door is no secret, nor is the need for freshmen to play an instant role in alleviating that strain. A successful ‘22-23 campaign will hinge on their ability to fit in straight away.
What is the ceiling for sophomore wingers Dylan Duke, Mark Estapa, and Mackie Samoskevich?
Once again, the relevant context here is the departure of last year’s big four. As freshmen a year ago, Duke, Estapa, and Samoskevich all established roles for themselves as complementary players.
By season’s end, Duke and Samoskevich were regulars on Johnny Beecher’s wings on the Wolverines’ third line (Beecher incidentally is also off to the pros this season). The former served as a relentless puck pursuer with attuned offensive instincts and an indefatigable efficiency below the offensive circles. The latter offered a dual scoring threat thanks to his skating, skill on the puck, and lightning release.
Meanwhile, Estapa played regularly on Bordeleau’s wing in a similar retrieval role to Duke, albeit with a heavier dash of pugnacity as the St. Clair native racked up the penalty minutes to the delight of the Children of Yost.
All three were effective players, particularly considering they were freshmen on a team stacked with talent. This season, though, the stakes are a bit different for the threesome, given this team’s need to replace the upper echelon of its offensive production.
Michigan is likely counting on more from Samoskevich than it saw a year ago, which is not so much a criticism of his production as an acknowledgment of his first-year role. As a true freshman, Samoskevich scored ten goals and gave nineteen assists across forty games played, good for an average of 0.73 points per game.
It is an impressive figure for a freshman, particularly considering that the Connecticutian did not reap the benefits of playing regular minutes alongside the Wolverines’ top gunners. Better still, Samoskevich’s form only improved over the course of his season. Eighteen of his twenty-nine points came after the calendar ticked over to 2022, and he made clear that he fit right in alongside the other talented Wolverine puck carriers.
As a sophomore, Samoskevich should figure into the Wolverines’ top six and play a healthy share of power play minutes. That should offer a straight-forward path toward boosting his point totals, but, until we see Samoskevich in that role, it’s difficult to know exactly what his ceiling might be until we see him there. With that said, a meaningful uptick in production out of Samoskevich is probably a prerequisite to the Wolverines meeting their lofty expectations.
For this Michigan team to realize its ultimate goal (a national championship), Samoskevich needs to be a terror to every defender with the misfortune of having to reckon with him at the blue line. His quicksilver release makes it easy to think of Samoskevich as a sniper, but he is a legitimate dual threat—equally comfortable shooting (and scoring) from distance in transition or picking out a teammate with a pass through a tight window in a crowded offensive zone. Samoskevich has the talent to inspire fear all across Big Ten defensemen, and a key job for Brandon Naurato will be ensuring that unfolds.
On the other hand, of the three sophomores we’ve named, Estapa is the one we’d most expect to remain in a similar role to the one he played a year ago. Estapa clearly wants for little in terms of his tools: he has excellent edges and skilled hands.
With that said, Estapa’s skillset appeared appropriately suited to a complimentary role within the context of his own line. This is not to say that Estapa is destined for a career in the bottom six (he already eclipsed that station as a freshman), but rather that he is unlikely to drive his own line. Instead, freeing him up to play as a rambunctious forechecker alongside playmaking linemates makes more sense than expecting him to assume primary scoring duties himself.
Duke, meanwhile, is somewhere in between. Stylistically, Duke’s game is not one that lends itself to stardom. His triumphs are more in the arena of “winning board battles” than “hammering power play one timers.” Duke doesn’t have Samoskevich’s finishing ability or aptitude in transition, but he showed a shrewd understanding of space as a freshman along with a willingness to play in fiercely contested ice, which afforded him ten goals and nine assists in his first season in Ann Arbor.
As a tandem, Duke and Samoskevich were outstanding down the stretch for the Wolverines on Beecher’s flanks, combining for a decisive goal against Minnesota in the B1G Tournament Title Game. In the season-ending, Frozen Four defeat to Denver, the pair’s ability to create space in the wide areas of the rink made for some of Michigan’s most threatening shifts. Keeping them together (albeit with a new pivot) could be fruitful for Brandon Naurato, given their pre-existing chemistry and complementary skillsets.
Who will join captain Nolan Moyle on a revamped fourth line, following the departures of Garrett Van Wyhe and Jimmy Lambert?
It’s not just the elite talent at the top of the Wolverines’ lineup that needs reshuffling; the veteran-laden Grind Line of a year ago also requires an overhaul. Throughout the Big Ten and NCAA Tournaments, Michigan relied on the trio of Moyle, Van Wyhe, and Lambert to take command of games via their knack for puck possession. They may have lacked the flash of their teammates further up the lineup, but effective forechecking and rugged simplicity earned them a regular shift.
Moyle, now wearing a “C,” figures to be a staple on this year’s fourth line, but his running mates remain to be determined with Lambert and Van Wyhe out of the picture.
A year ago, it was veterans who claimed those roles, so perhaps a player like Nick Granowicz or Philippe LaPointe (both of them in and out of the lineup a year ago) could cement a role for themselves in those slots. Neither brings an especially similar profile to either Van Wyhe and Lambert. Granowicz’s best asset is his speed, while LaPointe seems most comfortable as a creator, but just because it would look a bit different doesn’t mean it couldn’t work.
Low-hanging fruit here would be freshman Kienan Draper for the simple reason that his father Kris played the role to perfection on the famed Red Wings “Grind Line” of the late nineties and aughts. To be frank, we haven’t seen much of the younger Draper’s game, but on pedigree, he’s an obvious candidate for a fourth line spot.
Of course, all of this presupposes Brandon Naurato adopting a similar fourth line to that of his predecessor. In a peculiar way, the fourth line affords a coach an opportunity to imprint their vision on the ice. Where the top six is naturally populated by a team’s most talented players, a fourth line represents a blank canvas. The basic idea of a fourth line is to assemble a triumvirate of players who will excel playing with their collective feet hammering the accelerator for the duration of their limited minutes. Perhaps they want to throw a lot of hits, setting a physical tone; perhaps they want to dump, chase, and forecheck. Regardless of its chosen style, an effective fourth line distinguishes itself through the intensity with which it executes its assigned task.
One of the ways Penguins’ coach Mike Sullivan re-established his team’s identity on the fly en route to consecutive Stanley Cups was by constructing a fourth line oriented around pure speed rather than traditional grind. It would remain a staple of Penguins’ depth players throughout Sullivan’s ongoing tenure in Pittsburgh: speed over skill.
A year ago, Mel Pearson opted for a conventional energetic, dump-and-chase style fourth line. Brandon Naurato’s vision for that trio remains to be seen.
Odds and Ends
Uniform Update
Eagle-eyed fashionista and friend of the newsletter Drew Van Drese calls our attention to updates to Michigan’s crisp home white uniforms.
Presumably, the changes in numbering will translate over to the maize and blue kits as well, and below you can catch a fuller glimpse of what the new numerals look like on the jersey’s back.
Drew also teased specialty uniforms for January’s celebration of the program’s centennial and February’s outdoor game in Cleveland.
Bizarro Handball
We close with a rare foray into the world of soccer. We had the great good fortune to attend Monday night’s men’s game between the Wolverines and Detroit Mercy at the Michigan Soccer Complex. The 2-1 scoreline, favoring Michigan, may not inspire intrigue at first glance, but the game was decided on among the strangest incidents we have ever seen.
After a back-and-forth half in which Michigan enjoyed most of the ball but Detroit Mercy scrounged out the better chances on the counter, Samory Powder put the Titans ahead in the sixty-eighth minute with a beautiful curling shot from the edge of the box, delighting a vocal coterie of UDM fans who made the trip out to Ann Arbor.
Michigan would pull things back even through a Bryce Blevins goal six minutes later, before the chaos set in. In a moment of confusion moments after Blevins’ equalizer, a Titan center back sought to quell a Wolverine threat, resulting in a coming-together on the outskirts of the UDM penalty area. Despite the contact, no whistle came.
The Titan defender, apparently believing a foul had been called and lying in the area, picked up the ball and turned to the referee. This—not the preceding contact—triggered a penalty, which Michigan’s Quin Rogers converted with an elegant run up that sent the Titan keeper in the wrong direction.
Michigan would hold on to win by one goal.