World Junior Look-Ahead 12.24.23
What to expect from Rutger McGroarty, Frank Nazar, Seamus Casey, and Gavin Brindley when they lace up for Team USA at the WJC in Gothenburg
Hello and happy holidays from your friends at Gulo Gulo Hockey!
I apologize for having allowed another gap to swell between this and our previous newsletter, but a frantic Red Wing schedule and a lack of U-M games to discuss left my focus elsewhere. Today, on the eve of the eve of the World Junior Championship, I wanted to take a moment to review the four Michigan Wolverines in Sweden to represent the U.S. For each player, I’ll touch briefly on their season to date in review, their projected role for Team USA and coach David Carle, and then what I’ll be watching for from them at this forthcoming tournament.
Back in November, Brandon Naurato said that he appreciates the WJC as a development opportunity for the players who participate, specifically pointing to “what they can learn from success or failure over there in a high-stakes event halfway through the year.”
“I thought Brinds and Adam and Rutger came back, and their second halves were unreal,” Naurato continued. “I think Adam was motivated by his situation. I think Brinds was motivated; he had a good World Juniors, same with Rutger, and they came back with some confidence. Adam came back with something to prove. Seamus is going this year. He didn’t play a minute last year. He should be a huge part of that team, so I think that experience is great. It’s the best players in the world under 20, and they can take a lot from that. I just hope they come back healthy.”
We’ll save looking ahead to the second half on the men’s and women’s sides for the new year, and for now, let’s take a moment to get prepared for eleven of the most fun days of hockey of the season.
Rutger McGroarty
Season to date in review:
In 13 games, Rutger McGroarty has six goals and a dozen assists, making him U-M’s leader in points-per-game at 1.38. In so doing, what stood out most from the sophomore incarnation of McGroarty is his skating, which had been perceived as the lone weak point in an otherwise well-rounded profile.
Back in October, McGroarty explained that for him fitness played a central role in that growth, with improved conditioning helping him maintain the mechanical integrity of his skating stride: “I would say a big part of [my improved skating] is cardio, and…just taking care of my body and making sure I feel 100%. Because once I’m 100%, my skating isn’t really an issue. It’s when I get tired that my stride starts to break down, and it’s not as good as it should be. So working on that cardio, working on just the longevity of my body and then also just mechanically I continued to work with Barb Underhill this summer and just getting stronger, faster in the weight room.”
Of course, McGroarty’s first half came to an abrupt end when he had to be stretchered off the ice after absorbing a late hit that sent him careening back first into the boards. At the time, there was hope that he might be able to return for the WJC, but it was just that—hope—with reality not seeming nearly so optimistic considering the scary and uncertain nature of the injury. Yet, here McGroarty is, not just with Team USA but its captain, the third Wolverine to serve as the Americans’ WJC captain in four years.
“There was a lot of ups and downs for sure—mentally, physically,” McGroarty said last week at Team USA’s pre-tournament training camp in Plymouth. “Once you take a hit like that, once you get carried off on a stretcher, obviously I wouldn’t wish that on my worst enemy. It sucks, but I feel like the main thing that’s gotten me through is my family, friends, my girlfriend. Everybody’s been there for me.”
For the nineteen-year-old, the toughest part of coming back has been re-establishing the level of conditioning he set for himself over the summer. “I was off for eight to nine days, and then coming back, it’s kind of uncomfortable, so I was pretty much just bagging myself, just skating, getting my cardio back, getting my motor back. And then eventually, I was able to shoot and stuff. Now, I’m feeling really good.”
At this time a month ago, it seemed impossible McGroarty would have a chance to improve on last year’s World Junior bronze with Team USA; now he will lead the Americans into Gothenburg with his eyes set on gold.
Projected Team USA Role:
McGroarty projects as a top-line player for the U.S. in addition to serving as team captain. After the dust settled on the pre-tournament camp in Plymouth, Team USA’s general manager John Vanbiesbrouck lauded the way McGroarty—not yet cleared for contact—would lead his teammates through drills in practice; “how many injured players go first in a drill?” he asked rhetorically.
“We’re encouraged by that and by his enthusiasm, and we’re told with his lung, he’s really good, and with the other parts, the ribs, it’s pain management, and he looked to be doing well,” Vanbiesbrouck added, before touting the Nebraskan’s infectious disposition. “Rutger’s got a real contagious personality. He seems to always have a smile on his face and be positive. We’re gonna face a lot of adversity, so we need positivity.
At pre-tournament camp, McGroarty spent the bulk of his time on the U.S.’s first line with Cutter Gauthier (of Boston College) and Jimmy Snuggerud (of Minnesota). Assuming his health holds, he should be one of the top minute-earners among the American forwards between a robust five-on-five role and a likely place on the team’s top power play unit.
What I’m Watching For:
Before his injury, McGroarty looked like one of the most dominant players in college hockey—fast, physical, and graced with lethal finishing ability. It has already been an extraordinary journey to get to the point where he looks able to play in this tournament. If he can re-capture some version of that form, he will be in a prime position to bring that dominance to an international stage.
As Naurato pointed out, health is paramount for all four of these players from a Michigan perspective, but to state the obvious, that goes doubly for McGroarty. Based on what I saw last week in Plymouth, I’m fully expecting a healthy and hungry McGroarty to appear one of the best players at this tournament, and I’ll be glued to watching that play out.
Frank Nazar III
Season to date in review:
For Frank Nazar, this was bound to be an important season. After late off-season surgery conditioned everything that remained of his freshman year, Nazar’s sophomore season would serve as a natural inflection point in his development arc. Either Nazar would return to the heights of his second year with the NTDP (where his skating and vision made him one of the most dynamic players available at the ‘22 Draft) or he would remain the player who put up seven points in thirteen games at the tail end of Michigan’s season last year—useful, showing flashes of that dynamism, but not quite a true standout.
Through eighteen games as a sophomore, Nazar is a point-a-game player with eight goals and ten assists. It’s an obvious step in the right direction for the nineteen-year-old, but it’s still a bit shy of the offensive heights Nazar reached at the NTDP.
The good news is that Nazar’s underlying numbers suggest that he is nothing less than one of the best forwards in college hockey. Per the work of Elite Prospects’ Lassi Alanen, Nazar has one of the highest expected goal rates in the NCAA, provides tremendous value in transition through his acumen for gaining the offensive zone with control, and his attacking prowess doesn’t come at the expense of defense, where he’s also been an excellent battle winner.
As the season has progressed, Nazar has looked increasingly confident, and those underlying numbers suggest that he should probably be putting up more points than he has. Naurato told The Michigan Daily’s Ellie Richard that Nazar’s performance in Michigan’s 2-1 win over Notre Dame in South Bend before the holiday break was his best performance of his Wolverine career.
When you put all that together, the stars seem to be aligning for a big WJC from Nazar.
Projected Team USA Role:
Throughout much of the Americans’ camp in Plymouth, Nazar played on a line with Gavin Brindley and Michigan State’s Isaac Howard (a former NTDP linemate of Nazar’s). All three players are great skaters who combine offensive flourish with a commitment to defending and making life difficult for an opponent.
Of course, it’s entirely possible that circumstance will lead to David Carle separating Nazar, Brindley, and Howard, but I doubt it, because it’s the kind of line whose usefulness in a knockout tournament cannot be overstated. Carle can use those three together in any situation and presume that his side will get the best of play.
I love the skating from all three. I love the combination of Brindley’s playmaking with Howard’s finishing. I love the idea of Nazar driving those two in the right direction with his defense and puck-carrying.
What works so well about that trio is that they can fill a shutdown role without their only value coming from defense. Howard-Nazar-Brindley can play against an opponent’s top players, deny that elite opposition quality offense, and still provide some attacking thrust and finishing of their own.
For that reason, I’d fully expect Carle to keep them together and rely on them heavily—not necessarily to set the offensive pace for a loaded American squad, but to absorb some of the team’s most difficult minutes while still chipping in offense.
What I’m Watching For:
In keeping with the potential role I just described, I’m not counting on Nazar to be Team USA’s biggest offensive driver, but I nonetheless suspect he will play a massive role for Carle.
When asked for his expectations for Nazar heading into this tournament, Vanbiesbrouck offered a lengthy answer: “This is Frank’s time. He didn’t get an opportunity last year, and he was an underager the year before, which was in the summer tournament. His shoulder was bothering him, and we didn’t really know. And then he had the surgery, which kind of eliminated him from last year’s team, so this is his opportunity. He’s a guy that thinks a lot. He’s cerebral in his way. You saw him in the summer. He’s got elite speed, and I think if he plays within himself, he’ll probably do the same things…He’s gonna play a big role on this team.”
Out of all of that, it’s the first sentence that intrigues me most: “This is Frank’s time.” Nazar has begun to push back to his pre-injury level, but he hasn’t had a stage quite like the World Junior to show that off. In the coming two weeks, he will have the chance to remind the hockey community that he is one of the best players in the world in his age group.
I can’t wait to see what Nazar does with that opportunity, and if last year’s Duel in the D is any indicator, he’s a player who knows how to take advantage of a well-lit stage.
Seamus Casey
Season to date in review:
Eighteen games into his sophomore year, Seamus Casey already has four goals and nineteen assists, but what’s perhaps scarier is that his underlying numbers are even better. Again, per Alanen, Casey “has arguably been the best blueliner in the NCAA in the first months of the season;” his playmaking and chance creation is elite, and he is a monster in transition. Casey’s poise, along with a unique ability to blend sleight of hand with quick feet, makes him as exciting a player to watch as you’ll find anywhere in the hockey world.
As a sophomore, Casey has also shouldered an increased workload. Per a post from Mike McMahon’s College Hockey Insider (absolutely worth a paid subscription if you want to get smarter about the inner workings of the sport), Casey led the nation in average time on ice as of November 30th at 26:26 per game. Some of that has to do with the injuries U-M has dealt with on the blue line, but it’s also a reflection of his ability to thrive in any situation.
That he’s been so productive with such a robust workload is a testament to Casey’s unique talent. And to be absolutely clear, he is by no means an offense-only player. For more on how he’s grown away from the puck this season, be sure to check out my piece with Greg Revak from this morning—discussing the growth he’s shown in killing plays and diversifying his approach to breakouts.
Projected Team USA Role:
Entering this tournament, Carle has the luxury of three elite offensive defensemen at his disposal in Casey, Zeev Buium of the University of Denver (potentially the first defenseman off the board at the ‘24 Draft), and Lane Hutson of Boston University.
It will be interesting to see how he elects to distribute roles and minutes among those three. Hutson is perhaps the best known of that triumvirate, and he may be the favorite to play on the top American power play unit, but all three should be bound for big minutes.
Carle experimented with a Buium-Casey pairing in Plymouth, but I’d expect that come the start of pool play in Gothenburg, we will see each of Casey, Buium, and Hutson manning their own pairing. I think it ultimately just makes too much sense to have one of the three on the ice at all times.
For his part, Carle lauded the “desire to defend” he’s seen from each of his big three d-men. “Sometimes we all get wrapped up in—the Caseys, the Buiums, the Hutsons—what they do offensively, but there’s a reason they have the puck so much: They get it back,” he said.
What I’m watching for:
A bit like with Nazar, what I’m most looking forward to from Casey is the opportunity presented to him by a global stage like this one.
A year ago in the Maritimes, Casey made Team USA, but Rand Pecknold elected to make him a reserve, so he didn’t play a minute once the tournament began. This go-round in Gothenburg, he will be one of the Americans’ best players, and I’m excited to see him express that.
I have little doubt that readers of this publication appreciate his game, but I think that to those outside the Michigan hockey bubble, Casey’s been overshadowed by Luke Hughes within the Devils’ prospect pool or by Hutson among sophomore NCAA defensemen. My suspicion is that, by the end of this tournament, a lot more people will be familiar with Casey’s game and brilliance.
There is always a peril in prospect evaluation of becoming over-reliant on tournaments like this one in arriving at a judgment about a player. Though the WJC of course provides a big stage, it is a small sample size (which is part of what makes it so frenetically exciting to watch). Casey doesn’t need to have a big tournament in Gothenburg to prove his worth as a prospective NHLer, but he does have the chance to turn whatever heads haven’t yet caught on, and that’s exciting.
Gavin Brindley
Season to date in Review:
Like Nazar, Brindley has been a point-a-game player as a sophomore, with ten goals and eight assists in eighteen games played. He’s bounced back and forth from center to the wing, and he’s looked adept in both positions. To judge by the end product, Brindley has skewed a bit more toward scoring than assisting this season, but his underlying numbers suggest that he remains an elite playmaker.
To zoom out a bit, the appeal of Brindley’s game remains the way he blends the skillsets of a high-end scorer and high-motor grinder into a single package. He’s a great skater with obvious puck skill, passing, and finishing, but he also plays with remarkable physicality and energy. He’s officially listed at 5’9”, and every game he plays, you’ll see him run over someone to whom he’s giving up more than a couple inches.
He is an instrumental piece to Michigan’s power play and to its penalty kill and a player whose intensity helps set a standard for his teammates every night. All of that should come together to make him an excellent piece for Carle to have at his disposal.
Projected Team USA Role:
At last year’s WJC, Brindley was a player who forced his way onto the roster having not been invited to the team’s summer evaluation camp through a great week in Plymouth and an excellent first half to his freshman season in Ann Arbor. Once he made the team, he began the tournament as a depth grinder, who steadily made a name for himself and earned more minutes as the event progressed as he continued to deliver positive results for Pecknold.
This time around, there was no doubt about Brindley’s place on this roster entering December’s training camp; the only question was where Carle would use him. As discussed above, the answer appears to be on the wing and, at least to start, on Nazar’s wing specifically. I don’t want to repeat what I said about the potential of a Howard-Nazar-Brindley line, but to briefly reiterate, I see that unit as a high-impact matchup line with the ability to swing games in the Americans’ favor.
Brindley will also wear an “A” for the U.S. in Gothenburg.
What I’m Watching For:
To pick up on that notion of leadership, I’m interested to see the specific way Brindley asserts himself for Team USA at this tournament. His skillset is diverse, and he is capable of impacting a game in any number of different roles or capacities—with his skill, with his physicality, on the power play, on the PK.
As I said above, in last year’s WJC, that manifested in a high-energy forechecking role that steadily grew. As Naurato noted at the top, that performance sent him into the second half of his season with renewed confidence, triggering an uptick in both ice time and productivity.
This year, in an even bigger role, I want to see what it looks like for Brindley to assert himself a bit more offensively than he did in the Maritimes. Even if that potential Nazar line’s foremost priority is matching up with an opponent’s top gunners, that trio will force its way into offensive opportunities, and I want to see what that looks like for Brindley in particular.
Brindley missed the first day of camp in Plymouth, having returned home to Florida following the sudden passing of his grandfather. Brindley spoke with The Daily’s Rekha Leonard about how his grandfather had “never been more excited than to watch World Juniors last year,” before adding, “He’ll be watching above this year, I hope. He wouldn’t miss it for the world.”
I’ve never seen Gavin Brindley play a game where he didn’t look like one of, if not the, hungriest players on the ice, so I don’t mean to suggest in the slightest that he needed the extra motivation, but, with help from his grandfather watching from above, I have little doubt he’s in for a high-impact tournament. I’m excited to see exactly what that impact proves to be.
Support Michigan WoHo
As I mentioned at the top, we’re going to save a more detailed look-ahead to the second half for the new year, but I would be remiss if we wrapped here without a quick plug for the Michigan women’s hockey team ongoing fundraiser. Through this link, you can make a donation to help support their ability to travel safely to and from Nationals, and, given that the team is coming off an unbeaten first half to the season, it sure seems likely they will be returning to that event this year after last season’s breakthrough. Of course, the team shouldn’t have to rely on fundraisers like this for basics like safe travel to and from a national event they’ve played their way into, but, as long as that is the case, they are more than worthy of your support!
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