Now What?
Now What?
Last weekend, a sweep at the hands of MSU reset the state's hockey hierarchy and put U-M's tournament aspirations in profound jeopardy. Where does Michigan go from there?
By the end of last Friday night, the only cheers at Yost Ice Arena came from a coterie of Michigan State fans, relegated to standing room beyond the final row of bleachers at the old barn’s south end. One night later, it was once again the Michiganders clad in green and white—an apparent majority at the ostensibly neutral site of Little Caesars Arena, no doubt invigorated by their program’s best season in recent memory—grinning and cooing when the final horn sounded.
In absorbing 5-1 and 3-2 defeats at the hands of the Spartans, the University of Michigan men’s hockey team found itself on the wrong end of an unpleasant run of firsts. It was the first time relinquishing the Iron D Trophy since 2016, the first time losing to State twice at Yost since 2016-17, which was also the last year the Spartans won the season series between the in-state rivals.
“I just think mental errors by us,” said sophomore Gavin Brindley after Saturday’s Duel in the D defeat, before pointing to himself. “Obviously, they’re a good hockey team, and they got a lot of depth, but I think me personally could’ve made some better plays in the D zone, and that’s stuff we have to learn from and have to grow from here.”
The biggest distinguishing factors were two-fold, according to Brindley: “Lot of depth, and their goalie obviously played really well in both games. Having those two things, it’s hard to compete against every night.”
The former manifested most obviously in a Spartan fourth line featuring a World Junior player in Finland’s Tommi Mannisto that scored three times over the weekend. On Friday night, Tanner Kelly—who entered the weekend with five goals in twenty-five games—scored MSU’s first in what would eventually swell to a run of five unanswered. On Saturday, Kelly notched the game’s first goal, and his linemate Tiernan Shoudy scored the Spartans’ second not even four minutes after Dylan Duke briefly equalized.
After Friday’s game, MSU sniper Isaac Howard told Jon Morosi of the NHL and MLB Networks that the difference in that evening’s game was conditioning. The third period had begun tied at one, but, by its conclusion, the Spartans led by four. Whether or not fitness really was the difference in that decisive final frame, what was undeniable all weekend is that Adam Nightingale was more comfortable rolling four lines than was Brandon Naurato, and, from that reality, it would follow that the Spartans were fresher than the Wolverines in the two games’ decisive moments.
“You don’t win Stanley Cups or national championships just with one line or one D corps or a good power play. You need everyone involved,” said Naurato after the game. “I think the top teams in this league are extremely deep.”
Meanwhile, the latter factor need not be a reflection of Jake Barczewski’s performance but instead a measure of Trey Augustine’s imperiousness in Nightingale’s crease. The Red Wings’ draft pick—unfazed by the rivalry, the stage, and the Wolverine attack—stopped twenty-nine of thirty shots Friday, then thirty-six of thirty-eight Saturday, good for a .956 save percentage on the weekend.
So, after a weekend of upheaval in the state’s hockey hierarchy, where do the Wolverines stand?
After that Saturday defeat, Brindley expressed the urgency of Michigan’s circumstances. “Our season’s on the line now,” he said. “If that’s not motivation, I don’t know what is—just being able to win out these games and finish off our season pretty strong. Big Ten championship, that’s something that we’re looking forward to, and we have the confidence to win that thing. Again, in the tournament, anything can happen. Our goal is just to get better every day and do everything we can to win out.”
Naurato underscored this point, saying “Just from looking at the Pairwise as of today, if we don’t win the Big Ten tournament, then we can’t make the NCAA tournament.” And he is correct: If the NCAA tournament began today, Michigan (15th in the Pairwise) would be on the wrong side of the cut line. Cruelly yet appropriately for how the season has gone, in the five spots ahead of the Wolverines sit three teams against whom they dropped points: St. Cloud State (13th), Providence (12th), and UMass (10th).
Michigan has three series remaining in its regular season before the conference tournament, its final chance to solidify its standing with the Pairwise. First, this weekend, the Wolverines travel to State College to take on Penn State at Pegula Ice Arena, a building in which Michigan has picked up a sweep just once since the Nittany Lions returned to D1 hockey in the ‘13-14 season. Then, it’s a series at Yost against perennial kryptonite Notre Dame, before a season-concluding two-game set in Minneapolis against the Gophers, who have just two regulation losses in 2024.
Simply put, it won’t be an easy run-in to the finish line, instead a frantic uphill sprint for a team for whom consistency has not exactly been a strong suit. And yet, somber though the mood may be after a disappointing weekend, Michigan still holds the season’s fate in its hands. If there is one positive to be gleaned from the Spartans’ sweep (and I do believe there is), it’s that the weekend brought the particular challenge for the ‘23-24 Wolverines into supreme clarity.
For much of the season, this year’s Wolverines highs and lows have made it difficult to discern their ceiling from their floor. At their best, they look like world beaters; at their worst, they look unable to stem the tide of their various vulnerabilities; to make matters all the more confusing, those beauty marks and warts have repeatedly shown up on the same night—the clearest example, the Saturday night loss at Yost during the first MSU series.
Two years ago, Michigan’s test was national championship contention; could the Wolverines ridiculous assembly of talent become the exceptional hockey team to withstand the game’s inherent chaos and make good on the moniker “superteam.” Last season, the challenge was absorbing a massive talent exodus to the pro ranks before negotiating an interminable slew of off-ice distractions with the anchor of an interim tag around the first-year coach’s neck.
Now, with six games remaining in the regular season, we know at last the exact nature of these Wolverines’ challenge: finding a way to scrape and claw above the Pairwise cutline and into the national tournament.
That’s not to say that the ceiling of this team is merely a tournament berth; if they can get there, they will have more than a puncher’s chance to emerge from that event’s chaotic four-game gauntlet. However, for a team without the ridiculous, soon-to-be-professional depth of the ‘21-22 team or the talismanic centerpiece that Adam Fantilli provided the ‘22-23 team to paper over any cracks in the foundation, this group’s biggest obstacle is a more rudimentary one than those of the last two seasons. It might not be linear progress, but it’s reality.
The path out of last weekend’s humbling sweep is far from an easy one, but it’s a battle that might just provide one last chance to show the heights these Wolverines can reach and perhaps also one more bite at the Spartans—be it in the Big Ten Tournament or maybe even in the national one.
As Brindley said, if survival and the right to play a few more games beside one another isn’t sufficient motivation, then nothing will be. And, while it might not feel that way after last weekend, this team has shown a repeated ability to climb to a gear few teams in the country can match.
The 2023-24 Wolverines’ challenge is now clear, but their story is not yet done.
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