Midweek Roundup 11.2.22
Midweek Roundup 11.2.22
We take stock of the B1G, before musings on the weight of number one, the art and science of line construction, and the value of versatility for championship-caliber teams
The calendar has turned over to November, and the University of Michigan men’s hockey team is number one in the nation. What’s that worth?
Not much if you ask the team’s players and coaches. According to Brandon Naurato, the top spot in this week’s national polls “means nothing. And we don't want to sit on that.” That head coach added that he is “getting some stats to [the team showing] when Michigan plays the weekend, or the next game after being ranked number one,…they're not good.”
Senior defenseman Keaton Pehrson expressed a similar sentiment, saying “It’s obviously good to be recognized as number one. It means that our hard work is paying off right now, but job’s not finished yet…you want to be number one at the end of the year.”
The first team with a chance to challenge the Wolverines’ top ranking is Penn State, with the Maize and Blue traveling to State College for a Friday-Saturday set this weekend.
The Nittany Lions enter the series unbeaten in their eight games on the young season. Scoring 4.6 goals per game, PSU can also boast the nation’s second most prolific offense, trailing only Michigan at 5.3 goals per game.
Given that the two teams sit atop the nation in scoring and share a recent history of high scoring affairs between them, it’s safe to assume a high flying weekend in State College.
B1G KWL
Rather than our customary opponent pre-scout, we thought we’d take the commencement of Michigan’s Big Ten season to take a quick tour of the conference. Strictly speaking, B1G play opened on October 7th, and Michigan is actually the last of the conference’s seven teams to join the party that is conference play.
To get to know each of the six conference foes awaiting the Wolverines, we broke out the anchor charts and enormous, squeaky sharpies to draw up some KWL charts, so that you don’t have to. As our teaching readers (or I suppose our middle school readers) will know, this means we will review what we Knew going into the year, what we Wonder moving forward, and what we’ve Learned so far this season for each of Michigan’s B1G rivals.
Michigan State
Know: Danton Cole is out. Adam Nightingale is in. Now, the rebuild begins.
In five seasons in East Lansing, outgoing head coach Danton Cole never eclipsed fifteen wins. Adam Nightingale arrives as a head coach with a long road to restoring the lofty standard the Spartans set for themselves in the nineties and early aughts. This is not a team with realistic B1G aspirations this season, but taking points off one of the conference’s top gunners could be a way to build momentum in the early stages of the rebuild.
Wonder: What is a reasonable indicator of progress in year one of the Nightingale era?
As we just suggested, expecting Nightingale to conquer the Big Ten in year one would be an overreach, but Spartan fans will still want some marker of on-ice progress. Outdueling Wisconsin to crawl out of the Big Ten cellar might be one way to convey that progress, and the Spartans will play Wisconsin this weekend in a series that may well have a lot to say about the battle to avoid last in the conference.
Learned: Even if the road back is long, there are early reasons for optimism about an MSU resurgence.
The Spartans already boast a shootout victory over Notre Dame, and Nightingale has had early success on the recruiting trail. 2006-born MSU commits include the U-17 USNTDP’s Austin Baker, Lucas Van Vliet, and Christian Humphrey. Restocking the cupboard with talent is step one for Nightingale, and he appears on the road to doing so.
Minnesota
Know: Minnesota is the B1G program with the closest profile to Michigan.
The Gophers are a blue blood, situated in some of the country’s most fertile recruiting ground, with a roster loaded with future NHLers. That ought to sound familiar. Also like the Wolverines, Minnesota endured the departure of several key contributors this offseason in players like Ben Meyers, Sammy Walker, Blake McGlaughlin, and Chaz Lucius.
Wonder: Are early season special teams challenges the product of a small sample size or a harbinger of significant vulnerability later in the season?
Through eight games, Minnesota’s power play sits at a 20.6% (seven for thirty-four) success rate, and its short-handed unit has killed off 72.0% (eighteen of twenty-five) opposing power plays. The most rudimentary way to evaluate special teams units’ efficacy is a combined 100% success rate. The Gophers’ 92.6% figure falls comfortably short of that barometer, which is at least something of a red flag for a team of their caliber. Last season provides solid reason to believe that the penalty kill will revert to form with more opportunities, given that it posted a commendable 84.8% success rate last year. However, last year’s Gopher power play operated at just 21.2%, a figure that looks incommensurate with the panoply of offensive weapons available. We’ll be keeping an eye on Gopher special teams as the season progresses.
Learned: As Brandon Naurato has mentioned in relation to his own team’s ups and downs, this Minnesota team is a work in progress.
The return of Matthew Knies (who reportedly had serious interest from the Toronto Maple Leafs (who had selected him in the second round of the 2021 Draft)) and a stable of defensemen with a credible case at being the nation’s best (namely, players like Brock Faber, Ryan Johnson, and Jackson Macombe) helped make this the preseason favorite in the Big Ten. However, three early season losses provide a reminder that Bob Motzko’s team depends heavily on its youth and needs time to re-establish its identity without the likes of Meyers and Walker. It’s also worth noting that all three defeats came against teams currently in USCHO’s top ten: Minnesota State, Ohio State, and North Dakota. Even with a few blemishes on their early record, there is no reason to doubt that the Gophers are heavyweight Big Ten and Frozen Four contenders.
Notre Dame
Know: Under head coach Jeff Jackson, the Irish will play a tight-checking game that frustrates opponents and keeps them in B1G contention.
Under Jackson’s leadership, Notre Dame has as clear an identity as any team in DI hockey. The Irish clog the neutral zone, make life miserable for opposing attackers, then fly back with counter-punches of their own. Jackson’s teams have leaned on this formula since his national-title-winning days at Lake Superior State in the 90s. It’s a formula that has lifted Notre Dame to eleven NCAA Tournaments since his arrival in 2005-06.
Wonder: Can Michigan figure out the Irish in the regular season under Brandon Naurato?
This question is sort of cheating, since it is not strictly about Notre Dame. Nonetheless, it’s at the forefront of our minds when thinking about the ‘22-23 Irish. A year ago, Notre Dame took all four regular season games off Michigan. Though the two at Yost went to overtime and the Wolverines eventually exacted revenge in the semifinals of the B1G Tournament, the four losses went a long way toward keeping Michigan behind Minnesota in the pursuit of the Big Ten’s regular season crown. If Naurato and company want that title this year, winning a few against Notre Dame would go a long way.
Learned: Early season stumbles suggest that, even with Jackson’s acumen, stingy defense in South Bend cannot be taken for granted.
Through eight regular season games, the Irish sit at 4-2-2. Perhaps more concerningly, Notre Dame has already conceded four or more times in four of those eight games. Last season, the Irish gave up four or more seven times in forty games. Perhaps this is just a byproduct of small early season sample sizes, but the returns from the season’s first month suggest that Irish may be in for some unusual defensive vulnerability this year.
Ohio State
Know: While it might not have the depth of a team like Minnesota, Ohio State has its share of top end talent.
Sophomore defenseman Mason Lohrei returns to the Buckeye blue line after twenty-nine points and a +16 rating as a freshman. Fellow sophomore Jakub Dobes posted a sterling .934 save percentage and 2.26 goals against average a year ago. Meanwhile, freshman Stephen Halliday (a fourth round draft choice of the Ottawa Senators) has ten points in his first ten collegiate games a year after finishing second in the USHL in scoring with 95 points in 62 games for the Dubuque Fighting Saints a year ago. Georgii Merkulov’s departure for the pros after one season in Columbus hurts, but the cupboard is far from bare under coach Steve Rohlik.
Wonder: Can the Buckeyes finish what they started in ‘21-22 and run with the Big Ten’s big dogs?
Ohio State flirted with Big Ten contention until the dying stages of last season. However, in suffering consecutive sweeps—first at the hands of Minnesota and then in Ann Arbor—to close out the regular season, the Bucks showed they did not quite belong amongst the Big Ten’s ruling class. Dropping games two and three to Penn State in the Big Ten quarterfinals then cost OSU an NCAA Tournament berth. We’ll be eager to see whether or to what extent Lohrei, Dobes, and company can build on a strong season a year ago.
Learned: Through ten games, Ohio State is not exactly a paragon of consistency, but they’ve provided some evidence they could contend.
The Bucks’ early season ledger features a 6-4 blowout victory over Minnesota (OSU led 6-2 midway through the third) and a blowout loss to UConn (6-1 at the XL Center in Hartford), suggesting a wide range of possible outcomes. Nonetheless, a 7-2-1 record to go with a 57.7 CF% at even strength implies that Rohlik’s team is a credible conference title contender.
Penn State
Know: Penn State enters the season trending in the wrong direction for the first time since it revitalized its program.
In 2012, the Nittany Lions returned to Division I hockey for the first time since it played five seasons in the 1940s. Under the leadership of Guy Gadowsky, PSU won twenty or more games all but once between 2015 and 2020. That run included three NCAA Tournament berths and a victory in the 2017 Big Ten Tournament, before culminating in a 2020 B1G regular season title. In the last two seasons, PSU is a combined 27-32-1.
Wonder: Can the Nittany Lions revert to pre-pandemic form?
Given the slip in form under Gadowsky over the past two years, it’s fair to wonder whether the former Princeton and Alaska-Fairbanks coach’s utility has run its course. This is not to diminish what Gadowsky has accomplished in State College, guiding the Nittany Lions from club hockey in the ACHA through a season as a DI independent and on to Big Ten titles. However, we seem to have arrived at an inflection point. If Gadowsky’s team turns in a third consecutive sub-.500 season, it might in the best interest of all parties to part ways. However, with a strong campaign, Gadowsky could leave the past two seasons looking like pandemic-induced anomalies.
Learned: Early signs for PSU are good, albeit with a generous schedule.
Through eight games, the Nittany Lions are a perfect 8-0-0. Seniors Ture Linden and Kevin Wall, along with sophomore Ben Schoen, are scoring at a point-per-game pace or better. Junior goaltender Liam Souliere is off to an outstanding start with a 1.50 GAA and .945 save percentage through six starts. With non-conference sweeps over Canisius, Mercyhurst, and St. Thomas preceding a sweep of Wisconsin last weekend, it has not been the stiffest competition for Penn State (explaining a number thirteen ranking from USCHO despite a perfect record); nonetheless, a 60.5 even strength Corsi-For percentage suggests that early season success has been no fluke.
Wisconsin
Know: Head coach Tony Granato can recruit.
On this year’s roster, Granato has eight NHL draft picks. Headliners include Ty Smilanic (who transferred in this season from Quinnipiac) and Corson Ceulemans (a first round pick of the Columbus Blue Jackets). The results haven’t been great for Granato’s Wisconsin of late (with one notable exception, more on this in a moment), but there is talent to work with.
Wonder: At what point do we accept that Wisco’s 2020-21 was an aberration?
During that campaign, Granato’s team, led by eventual Hobey Baker Award-winner Cole Caufield, won the Big Ten regular season title. Caufield scored thirty goals and fifty-two points in thirty-one games. Caufield is off in Montreal now, and the Badgers endured a painful ten-win season without him a year ago. In the three seasons preceding Caufield’s Hobey breakthrough, Wisconsin won exactly fourteen games. The conference title season is an obvious outlier in the Badgers’ recent results, and, if Granato wants to stick around in Madison, he will have to do something to change that soon.
Learned: Wisconsin is nowhere near Big Ten contention this season.
The Badgers did earn a surprise sweep over Minnesota-Duluth, but that result appears to tell us more about the state of the Bulldogs than it portends a Wisco resurgence. Those wins over UMD sit alongside sweeps at the hands of Ohio State, St. Cloud State, and Penn State. Those are three quality opponents, but the hourglass for Tony Granato appears dangerously low on sand.
On the Art & Science of Line Construction
After Tuesday’s practice, we chatted with Naurato about the thought process behind his tinkering with Michigan’s lineup throughout the first month of the season. A glance at Michigan’s line chart from night-to-night and weekend-to-weekend reveals a heavy appetite for experimentation. Across the Wolverines’ four forward lines, only the DAM Line of Dylan Duke, Adam Fantilli, and Mackie Samoskevich has remained consistent throughout the young season.
Naurato explains that his experimental approach to arranging the forward group stems from the team’s dependence on young players: “so many new guys and then trying to find an identity for the fourth line? Like Rutger McGroarty is playing center this weekend, I don’t think he’s played center since he played youth hockey, but why not?”
He then turns to a Scotty Bowman-ism to explain what he’s looking for through the process of trial-and-error: “You’re trying to find two guys with chemistry and then a worker or a third guy that can fill in with those guys.”
Here again, Naurato believes in the power of tinkering to explore all possible combinations. “With these guys being freshmen [and not yet having established clear roles for themselves as collegiate players], it is Hallum and Brindley? Is it Hughes and McGroarty? You know, Fantilli and Samo or Duke and Samo? I don’t what’s perfect, but I feel like if you try a little bit of everything, you get to see what works and then you run the numbers.”
He also adds that “we won’t do as much of this [trial-and-error] in the second half” once more of those combinations have solidified.
In seeking out the right partnerships, Naurato emphasizes that the objective is putting players in spots where their skills naturally shine through, as opposed to forcing them into unnatural roles: “It’s always letting the players do what they do well…versus me trying to teach them to play a certain way. I’m trying to teach them to play a certain way inside of who they are.
“As an example, Moyle [will be with] Brindley and Hallum [this weekend]. We have high ice plays, we have down low plays, we have plays in the middle of the ice. Nolan Moyle should be at the net front more than he should be super high in the offensive zone,” so Naurato seeks out running mates in Brindley and Hallum whose style will naturally invite Moyle to excel in the areas of the ice where his skills are best put to use.
In the end, Naurato stresses that he trusts his players’ abilities to adapt to working with various teammates, given his team’s overall depth: “There are little [differences] in styles of play inside of the structure, so if we’re low, Nolan Moyle’s dominating. But can Jackson Hallum and Gavin Brindley play down there? Absolutely, so yeah, there are little pieces or divisions inside of structure…each guy has their own unique skill set, but on top of that, the game’s the game. You’re asking players to do other things, and that’s development.”
A Closing Nar Nugget on the Versatility of Championship Teams
When asked to assess his team’s status through eight games, Naurato provided a lengthy response, pointing again to the value of the regular season as a space for learning and development. According to the head coach, championship teams must be able to win against different styles of opponents, and the regular season affords an opportunity to confront the diverse challenges the sport offers.
“They’re kids, we’re never going to play a perfect game, but that’s what you’re fighting for. It’s all learning. It’s all being prepped. If you play a team in the tournament and they play a style of play that you can’t play against, they may be the sixtieth-ranked team or sixteenth, they can beat you can’t play that style of game.
“Western was back and forth. Way more transition, way more rush. That’s how Harvard plays, that’s how Minnesota plays, that’s how Penn State plays. Minnesota State, North Dakota, bigger heavier, Quinnipiac, down-low teams, you’ve got to be able to play that game.
“Our o-zone allowed us to play against AIC and Quinnipiac [in last year’s NCAA Tournament]. We weren’t perfect, but we were able to play.
“Denver can play every way or the top team in the country can play every way. That’s how you win. And you have to find ways. Denver’s down one-nothing, and they score five goals against Minnesota State. They figure it out; there’s some adjustment that happened that those guys went out and just clicked and it worked.
“What I’m proud of our team [for] is we’re finding ways to win games. I was all over our power play [last Friday] 0-4. We were five-for-five [Saturday]. Did we do anything crazy? Yeah there are som plays that we’ve worked on that worked out, but it was more mentality and delivering pucks and converging and outnumbering at the net. That’s what Western does a good job at, so you can take stuff from other teams.”
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