A Michigan Hockey Guide to the 2022 NHL Draft
Three soon-to-be Wolverines along with Mark Estapa should hear their names called this weekend; meanwhile, a Flyers’ prospect makes plain the importance of Russia’s autocracy to the hockey world
The 2022 NHL Draft will begin on Thursday night in Montreal. The first round will unfold Thursday evening, before rounds two through seven begin at 11:00 AM Friday. It will be the league’s first in-person draft since 2019 in Vancouver.
Late last July, at the 2021 NHL Draft, current or future Michigan Wolverines comprised four of the first five picks.
Don’t expect to hear that many Wolverines to hear their names called that quickly on Thursday night, but even without that record-setting top tier of talent, Michigan will be well represented.
We at Gulo Gulo have you covered with everything the Michigan hockey fan needs to know about the 2022 NHL Draft.
Four Wolverines at the 22 Draft: Estapa, Nazar, McGroarty, Casey
Unlike a year ago, just one player from last season’s roster is draft eligible: soon-to-be sophomore forward and fan favorite Mark Estapa. Estapa earned a reputation for his ferocity as a forechecker and along the boards during his freshman campaign, but his aggressive style also yielded frequent trips to the penalty box (all of which were deemed unjust by the Children of Yost). Estapa registered two goals, nine assists, and forty-five penalty minutes in thirty-four games. NHL Central Scouting lists Estapa as its 205th best North American skater, a rating that suggests a seventh (and final) round grade.
The Wolverines’ most serious prospects for the ‘22 Draft come not from the current roster but instead from the incoming class of freshman. A triumvirate of USNTDP products can all expect to hear good news by the end of the second round.
At the top of Michigan’s prospect board is Frank Nazar, an undersized, fleet-footed center from Mt. Clemens, MI. Nazar’s raw speed is enough to make him a nightmare in transition, and, with the NTDP, he generated breakaways at a rate he is unlikely to sustain as he transitions to a higher level of competition.
Even if some of those breakaway opportunities dry up, Nazar projects as an effective attacking player, thanks in large part to his deft ability in tight spaces, allowing him to extend plays and find new windows of offensive opportunity. Besides his speed, Nazar’s greatest gift is his vision and skill as a passer, where he shows an uncanny knack for threading cross-ice or no-look pucks to a teammate’s tape.
Elite Prospects’ draft guide lists Nazar as the class’ best transition forward and its prospect with the highest ceiling, along with ranking him as having the draft’s second-best vision, straight-line speed, and problem-solving skills.
The main reason Nazar does not appear higher on most prospect rankings is his 5’10”, 180-pound frame, which casts doubts as to whether he actually projects as a center at the NHL level.
This package (an undersized, right-shot, playmaking center) evokes comparison to Tampa Bay Lightning center Brayden Point. Here, we feel an obligation to point out that a comparison is just that—the suggestion of similarities in profile, rather than an assurance that Nazar will wind up the top center on a team that reaches three straight Stanley Cup Finals.
For Michigan fans considering the 2022-23 roster, Nazar looks like the best possible replacement for the dynamism Matty Beniers brought to the forward group a season ago.
So, when should you expect to hear Nazar’s name called? The first (half of the first) round. EP (who as you may have gleaned from the aforementioned superlatives is extremely bullish on Nazar) ranks him as the draft’s fifth best prospect. TSN’s Bob McKenzie has Nazar at fifteen on his big board, and NHL Central Scouting lists him at twenty-one among North American skaters.
For Michigan fans, it is worth noting that Nazar would appear to make quite a bit of sense for the Detroit Red Wings at the eighth overall selection. Speed, a high work rate, and a high hockey IQ would seem to check all of Wings’ general manager Steve Yzerman’s major boxes, and Nazar has made no bones about growing up a Wings fan. We at Gulo Gulo would not be disappointed in the slightest should Detroit select Nazar, triggering an uptick in interest among its fans in Michigan hockey (an interest they could indulge by subscribing to gulogulohockey.substack.com).
Beyond Nazar, Michigan’s two top prospects are forward Rutger McGroarty and defenseman Seamus Casey.
McGroarty, a Lincoln, NE native, spent last season as the NTDP’s captain and projects as a late first or early second round selection. Unlike Nazar, speed is the one area where McGroarty is deficient.
In the words of Elite Prospects’ Mitch Brown, McGroarty “finds success without having separation speed or quick edges. Instead of getting in footraces, he delays and finds the trailer. Where many of his peers try to beat defenders with handling skill, he uses a combination of body positioning and quick, short touches to play keep-away. Where most players force a pass through traffic, he manipulates the defender to create the passing lane.”
Brown later highlights McGroarty’s natural aptitude for play away from the puck and dual-threat ability as a shooter and passer. All of these tools combine to make McGroarty EP’s fifth-ranked power forward in the class and fortieth-ranked prospect overall. Both McKenzie and NHL Central Scouting are higher on the Nebraskan: ranking him at twenty-seventh and twenty-second respectively.
For Michigan fans, the best news is that even if a comparative lack of foot speed lowers his NHL ceiling, McGroarty’s well-rounded game should set the table for an immediate impact in Ann Arbor this Fall.
Meanwhile, Seamus Casey spent much of the past season playing alongside Tyler Duke (younger brother of Dylan and Ohio State-commit) for the NTDP. Like Nazar, Casey is undersized by conventional standards, but his outstanding skating (both in terms of speed and agility) make him an appealing prospect and immediate fit on Michigan’s blue line.
As Michigan copes with life after Owen Power and Nick Blankenburg on the back end, Casey should be a welcome remedy. Greg Revak of the Hockey IQ Newsletter describes the defenseman as a “breakout king” with all the makings of a high-end puck-moving defenseman. Revak does note that passivity in the offensive zone did o put a bit of a cap on Casey’s production for the NTDP, and it will be interesting to see if he affords himself a bit more freedom to activate in the zone once he gets to Ann Arbor. Certainly, Blankenburg and Power had no reluctance about doing so.
McKenzie listed Casey as the fifty-first best prospect in the draft; Elite Prospects has him at forty-three; NHL Central Scouting has him as the twenty-ninth best North American skater at the draft.
Even if it can’t replicate the excitement and dominance of last Summer’s draft, it should be a fun two days for Michigan hockey fans.
Ivan Fedotov: a Terrifying Reminder of the Reach of Russian Autocracy
Our final news item for this week does not concern a draft-eligible prospect for Thursday’s draft; instead, it is far more important.
Ivan Fedotov is a twenty-five-year-old goaltender. Though born in Finland, he is a Russian citizen. He spent last season winning the Kontinental Hockey League’s Gagarin Cup as the starter in the crease for CSKA Moscow, a direct descendent of the famed Red Army teams of the Soviet era. In February, he earned a silver medal at the Olympics for the Russians. In May, he signed an entry-level contract with the Flyers, who had selected him in the 7th round of the 2015 Draft.
On the first of July, Fedotov was detained in St. Petersburg for what officials described as “military evasion.” Given that all of this is taking place behind an authoritarian veil, it is difficult to decipher the particulars of the situation, but the crux of Fedotov’s crimes seem to be his desire to leave Russia and pursue an NHL career when CSKA preferred for him to spend another year in the KHL.
In an act of retribution, CSKA seems to have leveraged its connections to the Putin regime (and historic tie to the Russian Army) to send Fedotov to an Arctic military base called Novaya Zemlya as a punishment.
If you are at all familiar with Putin’s regime of terror, you will doubtlessly know that being in Russian custody is a thoroughly unenviable position.
Already, reports have circulated that Fedotov and his lawyer fear the young goaltender was poisoned by some kind of unknown injection administered while in custody. Putin’s regime has a lengthy and well-documented history of disregard for human life and ample willingness to kill off enemies via poisoning.
The situation bears some resemblance to the ongoing saga of former Baylor and Phoenix Mercury Brittney Griner, a star who has been in Russian custody since January. Griner remains a prisoner of the Russian state, and, theoretically, should be easier to extract given that she is an American citizen, but thus far that doesn’t seem to have meant much.
Fedotov’s abduction offers a chilling reminder that hockey as a sport will be forced to reckon with Russia’s autocracy.
For some time now, there has been talk of another World Cup of Hockey to compensate for the NHL not going to last February’s Olympics; it is inconceivable that Russia would be invited to such an event (even in some ludicrously neutered “Olympic Athletes from Russia” form) at the moment, but international hockey already struggles with building a robust field of serious challengers, so scratching one off that list will be a serious hindrance to the appeal of any such tournament.
Meanwhile, there are surely NHL teams who now feel that selecting a Russian in this weekend’s draft isn’t worth the risk, and, we are likely to see more problems when it is time for Russian internationals who returned home for the offseason to come back for training camp.
Beyond those considerations, Fedotov’s abduction illustrates the futility of lashing out at Russian athletes over the totalitarian impulsivities of their elected leader. Russia is not a country where political freedom exists, and no athlete has the power to destabilize that reality.
Fedotov, like so many Russian citizens, is a victim of his nation’s government, not some pawn of it. To blame individual Russian citizens for the walking humanitarian catastrophe that is their head-of-state is misguided.
While banning teams from wearing the Russian flag makes total sense, banning individual athletes from competing in Western leagues is denying them a rare path away from authoritarianism. It is nothing more than indulging in the xenophobia that has long characterized North American hockey’s relationship to Russia, an attitude that had nothing to do with ideological disagreement over an invasion or the violation of human rights.
Fedotov’s story is a tragedy, with no clear path toward resolution. Worse for hockey fans, it is more likely a harbinger of more terrible news to come than an isolated incident.